While at the time of writing this is somewhat old news, the recent House Speaker election was rather interesting to watch. While the moment itself was historic, the results are unlikely to be. I don’t think that the election of Kevin McCarthy will really change the face of political power in the country, however I would love to be proven wrong. Instead, by electing McCarthy as Speaker, the likelihood of having the current neoliberal uniparty be challenged in a real sense seems lower than ever. Granted, there were concessions made to appease the Freedom Caucus, and so in theory they have some control over McCarthy. However, I seriously doubt any of these tools will actually be used, since by having a vote of no confidence, any Republicans not only indict McCarthy, but also the party as a whole. Not to mention the attack ads that would be made after such an attempt in the House.
I do think that there is a potential however for the Freedom Caucus to continue to be a real thorn in the side of the Republican party, forcing their hand in many circumstances due to their votes being extremely important to get any legislation through the House. Additionally, there is potential for there to be meaningful investigations conducted through the House, however I seriously doubt that any of these investigations will be of the same caliber as the Church Committee, as some Republicans would like to see. Time will ultimately tell though.
While it is far too early to speculate on what is likely to occur in this congress, I’m not sure that there will be much of note that occurs. Rather, it seems more likely that little will happen due to the very narrow majority of the Republicans. Infighting is a sure way to abdicate responsibilities and to raise campaign funds.
That’s not to say that I’m entirely pessimistic about the new House, as I do think that if the Freedom Caucus can stay in good graces with most of the Republican voter base, that the face of the Republican Party can have some real change which, I think, has been long overdue. Hopefully, the House having a Republican majority will lead to fewer omnibus bills, however this is unlikely due to how small the Freedom Caucus is when compared to the rest of the party. Instead, I think that there will be a push from the Freedom Caucus to have smaller bills, many of which will be focused on cultural issues, as opposed to economic issues. While many of these smaller bills are likely to be passed by the House, the chance of them actually becoming law is minuscule due to them having to both pass through the Senate and be approved by the President.
As for the Democrats, they are likely to stay as one contiguous block, just as they were when they voted for Hakeem Jeffries for Speaker. I’d be amazed to see cooperation with Republicans, however I would not be surprised if Democrats take it upon themselves to introduce legislation that will force internal conflict in the Republican party, particularly to stoke the flames of division between the more conservative members and libertarian members.
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